The U.S. economy is not officially in recession. Even with the low number of jobs created in October, the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%. And there’s no recession in the auto industry such as the one that began in 2008.

Yet many autoworkers are facing mass layoffs, because the capitalist class always seeks to extract the greatest amount of production with the lowest labor costs in order to maximize profits. This often means cutting jobs. If these job cuts are happening now, what can autoworkers expect when there’s an economic downturn?

Winning anything from the auto company bosses is hard, especially in this stage of capitalist decline. Saving jobs is even harder than winning a pay increase. But history, including the UAW’s own history, shows that nothing is ever won without a struggle. Autoworkers in Brazil have gotten GM to back off from layoff threats after they struck the company.

The 2023 strike at Stellantis, GM and Ford won commitments to retain jobs. Now Stellantis is, according to the UAW, violating the contract by slashing jobs — a “strikeable grievance” under the agreement. But the company called thousands of workers — in violation of U.S. labor law —urging them to vote “no” in strike authorization votes at the various plants.

There have been many UAW strikes over the decades when contracts expire, but few in the middle of a contract. Workers are fearful. At a Stellantis plant in Kokomo, Indiana, the strike authorization only received 61% of the vote — a majority but not the two-thirds needed to approve a strike under the UAW Constitution. Shortly thereafter, the UAW’s strike vote plans for other plants were put on hold.

The UAW is in a difficult position. If the union opts not to strike, that will embolden Stellantis. But if it strikes without rank-and-file support, that will also embolden the company.