The direction of travel would’ve been the same, but Ukraine might’ve been able to hold the line for a few extra months. The key part here is that Kursk stunt has no upside to it, and it made an already catastrophic situation worse.

That said, the problem Ukraine had from the start was that it was entirely dependent on the west because it’s not able to produce its own weapons. As a result, Ukraine has to fight a war for western media which puts huge constraints on their strategy. For example, Ukraine always holds territory to the last man instead of withdrawing from untenable positions as they did with Bakhmut. I think that Kursk is another example of this phenomenon. Ukraine needed to demonstrate that they still have a capacity to fight, and hence they came up with a narrative that they’re able to bring the fight to Russia.

Conversely, Russian army has far more operational freedom because they’re not fighting for the media. They’re able to make strategic retreats as they did in 2022, and they can absorb incursions like Kursk without diverting troops from strategic areas. Because Russia is self sufficient in military terms, they can ignore whatever narratives are being spun at the time and focus on achieving their long term goals.

Firefox here

There is zero chance of this incursion making it anywhere close to the nuclear plant. In fact, at this point even pro Ukrainian maps are showing that it’s Russia that’s on the offensive in Kursk. I also have no idea what morale boost you’re talking about as this stunt pulled valuable troops and machinery from the collapsing front in Donbas. Here’s what CNN reported just a couple of days ago https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/08/europe/ukraine-military-morale-desertion-intl-cmd/index.html

Two and half years of Russia’s grinding offensive have decimated many Ukrainian units. Reinforcements are few and far between, leaving some soldiers exhausted and demoralized. The situation is particularly dire among infantry units near Pokrovsk and elsewhere on the eastern front line, where Ukraine is struggling to stop Russia’s creeping advances.

As a battalion commander, Dima was in charge of around 800 men who fought in some of the fiercest, bloodiest battles of the war – most recently near Pokrovsk, the strategic eastern town that is now on the brink of falling to Russia.

But with most of his troops now dead or severely injured, Dima decided he’d had enough. He quit and took another job with the military – in an office in Kyiv.

Here’s what The Economist reports https://archive.is/KrBmX

Yury, a soldier attached to the 59th brigade based near Ukrainsk, says Ukrainian losses have been significant. A reinforcement of inexperienced infantrymen sent from Ukraine’s 71st brigade were wiped out. “Over three days, 100 became zero. Some ran, some fell.”

The Russians are still focused on control of the roads leading to Pokrovsk. “We have been fighting with our last guard, and have thrown our logistics guys into the trenches.”

“Physicist”, a tank commander with the 68th, says the Russian air force and artillery can react almost in real time; anything that moves and is not protected is destroyed. His tank drivers consequently now mostly work as static artillery units, operating from closed positions, and much farther back.

This has been a gift for Russia because now Ukrainian troops are out in the open where Ukraine is taking much heavier losses than they did while they were dug in. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/17/out-in-the-open-and-on-the-move-in-russias-kursk-oblast-ukrainian-forces-are-vulnerable-and-losing-lots-of-armored-vehicles/

This also extended the front for Ukraine complicating their logistics situation. The worst part from Ukrainian perspective is that they can’t pull troops back because it will be admitting the failure of the gambit. So, now they’re stuck feeding men and machines into a battle that has zero long term value while they lose important strategic areas around Pokrovsk.

What’s likely to happen in the near future is that Ukraine will lose Pokrovsk which is a key logistics hub through which southern forces are supplied by rail. Once that’s lost there’s no good way to move supplies or reinforcements south meaning that the group of forces there will be completely cut off. Kursk greatly accelerated this process.

almost certainly not

I’m bringing up westerners to illustrate that this position isn’t controversial for anybody who has a clue. Since people in the west have been the primary subjects of western propaganda about the conflict, it’s remarkable that there are people in the west who are able to see past that.

Sometimes peple reveal more than they intended when they write.

You certainly are doing that here.

You keep repeating that, but the data does not support it.

It does, but it’s obvious that you’ll never acknowledge that.

Wow, just wow. So we don’t actually need to ask e.g indiginous people of their opinions, it’s enough to ask “educated westeners”. Which century are we living in?

Really need to work on your reading comprehension there. This is frankly embarrassing. Let me try using simpler language that you might have a hope of understanding.

The people in the global south, e.g. indigenous people, have opinions that are entirely independent of what ignoramuses in the west think. Their majority opinion aligns with Russia.

However, a handful of educated westerners are able to reach this same understanding that the rest of the world has instead of just guzzling propaganda the way people such as yourself do.

Let me know if you’re still struggling with this and need me to chew it up for you a bit more.

I’m not sure if China had drills around Cuba, but Russia did.

Is that why they keep codemning Russia in various UN resolutions? The numbers speak for themselves.

Except they’re not doing that, the global majority countries are at best abstaining. And the only reason they’re doing that is not to piss off the US further. Go look up where most people in the world actually live.

It does’t matter if educated westeners think Russia is right: that’s not what’s being discussed.

What educated westerners think matches what people living outside the west think.

I haven’t heard anything so patronizing and colonoalistic in a long time.

That’s because all you’ve got is a straw man that has nothing to do with what I was saying. What was actually said to you is that even educated people in the west understand what the rest of the world understands. You just flipped that around because you’re intellectually dishonest.

It’s pretty obvious from all the actions the global majority countries have taken that they do in fact support Russia. And the reason they support Russia is very simple, they understand why this war started and which party is the problem.

The UN resolution clearly shows: The vssz majority of countries, including the global south, think what Russia is doing is wrong.

Except that it doesn’t show anything of the sort. You can repeat this until you’re blue in the face, it won’t make it true. In fact, even educated people in the west know who is doing wrong. People like Chomsky, Mearsheimer, and many others have explained in great detail how the west is responsible for what’s happening in Ukraine. Just a couple of examples

• https://truthout.org/articles/us-approach-to-ukraine-and-russia-has-left-the-domain-of-rational-discourse/
• https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/who-caused-the-ukraine-war

This is well understood by anybody who hasn’t been brainwashed by western media for the past two years.

I define support in tangible terms. The only countries that took any actual action against Russia are burgerland and its vassals. The action the rest of the world has been taking is to increase trade with Russia and to masively apply to BRICS.

The UN vote doesn’t show much of anything, especially given that most populous countries abstained. If you think that poor countries support the west over Russia after what the west has been doing to them, then you’re utterly delusional. Maybe you should ask yourself why African countries are kicking out the west with Russian help.

I see reading comprehension isn’t your strong point, but that should be no surprise at this point.

These findings have caused some surprise and even anger in the West. It’s difficult for Western thought leaders to comprehend that two-thirds of the world’s population is just not lining up with the West in this conflict. However, I believe there are five reasons why the Global South is not taking the West’s side. I discuss these reasons in the short essay below.

Over the past year the number of countries actively condemning Russia has fallen from 131 to 122, as some emerging economies have shifted to a neutral position. This US- and EU-led bloc, which represents about 36% of the global population, has exhibited a strong level of collaboration on sanctions, as well as solid military and economic support to Ukraine.

U.S. officials point out that 141 of 193 countries at the United Nations voted to condemn Russia after the invasion and that 143 voted in October to censure the Kremlin’s announced annexation of parts of Ukraine. But only 33 countries have imposed sanctions on Russia, and a similar number are sending lethal aid to Ukraine.

The reality of the situation is that the west finds itself completely isolated.

Seems like those days are rapidly coming to an end with BRICS forming a bulwark against the empire.

You did get new material which is a fresh interview that Nuland gave. The only thing old here is your childish reaction when faced with facts that don’t fit your infantile world view.

Nowhere did I say that you have to choose one. Russia is a capitalist state that mirrors the west in many of the worst ways. However, it’s a well documented fact that Russia did in fact try to avoid this war.

The difference is pretty clear from the number of wars US and Russia have been involved in actually.

Coming from a troll who just keeps regurgitating the same line like a bot.

And yet as links I provided clearly show vast majority of the global south supports Russia. You keep on coping though.

You’re either completely lack reading comprehension or intentionally repeating NATO propaganda.

Oh I’m sorry I didn’t realize you were an open fascist. Usually libs try to hide that.

The question is which states, but having no clue regarding the subject you’re opining on it’s not surprising that you wouldn’t understand that. Maybe if you spent your time actually learning things instead of trolling then you’d understand the strategic importance of Ukraine. Maybe go read up on WW2 sometime and see which path the nazis took to Russia then.