The notion that Russia will militarily occupy Europe is pure fantasy. However, what’s absolutely certain is that both Russia and the US will exploit the political chaos in Europe caused by collapsing living standards, a crisis Europe itself created. In a twist straight out of Greek tragedy, Europe’s fear of Russian domination has turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Since 2014, and especially post-2022, the EU has doubled down on a strategy of sweeping sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and moralistic rhetoric in its crusade against Russia. Yet, now it’s Europe that finds itself politically isolated and with its economy collapsing. By cutting itself off from cheap Russian energy, Europe triggered a steep decline in living standards that left the neoliberal political center teetering on the edge. Sanctions intended to harm Russia have instead led to Germany’s deindustrialization, with giants like BASF now shifting production abroad. Russia, on the other hand, successfully pivoted toward the Global South, with major countries like China and India more than making up for any lost trade with Europe.
After three years of economic war, EU unity is finally starting to fray. Hungary and Slovakia openly defy the EU, Greece and Cyprus veto arms shipments to Kyiv, and that’s just the start. Populist parties across Europe are weaponizing economic pain into anti-EU sentiment. Elections in France, Germany, Czech Republic, and Romania all show nationalist parties steadily gaining momentum. This trend will only grow as the standard of living continues to decline.
Meanwhile, the US appears to have recognized the end of the unipolar order and has opened dialogue with Russia cutting Europe out of the discussion. Europe’s obsession has left it stranded, lacking the military might to resist realignment or the economic autonomy to chart its own course. Its survival hinges on abandoning its zero-sum vendetta and adapting to the new multipolar world. Unless the EU swaps moral crusades for strategic realism, it risks its own destruction.
The relevance of Europe stemmed from USSR being the main adversary of the US. Today, it’s clearly China and the US is very openly saying they want to pivot to Asia. In this scenario, normalizing relations with Russia and pulling out of Europe makes perfect sense. The US can’t be everywhere at once, and they have to prioritize now that they’re dealing with multiple peer adversaries in form or Russia and China. Europe simply doesn’t have the relevance that it used to.
NATO was created to keep Europe subservient to the US, but now there’s a rift in policy towards Russia. The US starting direct talks with Russia is a clear sign that from US perspective Russia is the more important player. Unless Europe knuckles under, then I fully expect the US to abandon it.
Furthermore, US pulling out of NATO will provide a big stimulus for the military industry in US, which will boost the economy that Trump desperately needs right now. Europe is already in panic and they’re talking about allocating vast amounts of money to defence. Given that Europe lacks any serious military industry, much of that money will go directly to US.
Another factor here, is that US is not terribly happy about the EU existing. Vance was pretty clear on that point at Munich. With NATO being gone, the US will have an easier time attacking the EU politically. The ideal situation from US perspective would be if EU broke apart and they could deal with individual countries from a position of absolute strength.