Mat Piscatella of Circana said this is an unprecedented and “chaotic” situation as it relates to tariffs and their impact on video games, so anyone claiming to know how things will shake out may be speaking out of turn.
“All anyone can do at this point is speculate. We are certainly in uncharted waters here, and no one really knows what will happen next,” he told GameSpot. “Obviously, the announced tariffs are having an immediate impact on the financial markets. And given the haphazard nature of how the tariffs are being calculated and applied, uncertainty is really the only certain thing at the moment.”
Piscatella said there is “absolutely the chance” that the new tariffs or any additional future tariffs might amount to changes for US consumer products, and not just for Nintendo but for all players.
We usually measure inflation by looking at prices, but price changes are usually a reaction to the core cause of inflation, which is an increase in money supply. Creating more money makes money less valuable, which means people expect more of it for the same product and service.
During COVID, we printed a ton of money in the form of stimulus checks, reduced production due to health-related restrictions, and screwed up the global supply chain. Part of that was transient (production and global supply chain), but the money printing permanently increased the money supply.
But the cost of oil increased and therefore the cost of producing anything using electricity or shipping items so it wasn’t like it created some massive surplus of money supply. Increased costs was the biggest driver of price rises in recent year and available money generally bought less than before.
Yes, supply chain issues were the largest spark of prices, but if it was just that, prices would’ve dropped back to where they were once supply re-normalized (i.e. inflation followed by deflation). That didn’t happen, and prices remained high, meaning money supply increased in the meantime as well.
Deflation doesn’t always follow inflation. Most countries fear it as it could spark recession. UK for example always aims for 2%, not 0%. It didn’t help that Opec limited oil supply to keep price high.
In the UK, we didn’t have stimulus check, but had inflation close to 10%, many countries in the EU too so the conclusion it was the money supply doesn’t hold up.
TL; DR - the process was something like this:
I’m not talking only about stimulus checks, but any increase in money supply.
Ok, but you still had an increase in money supply at the same time as inflation. Look at some sources:
The money supply absolutely increased along with inflation. The Euro also saw increased money supply as well in the same period as high inflation, and here’s another with similar data with a longer view (last link is a slightly different measure, M1 vs M2).
These sources show an increased money supply that strongly correlates with inflation figures: it increased dramatically as inflation kicked off, then slowed down but didn’t decrease as inflation dropped. I don’t know what exactly caused the increase in money supply in that era (would have to look into a bunch of policy changes in that period), but it happened.
If money supply wasn’t increased, we would’ve seen a deflationary period after the causes of the inflationary period (price shocks due to global supply chain) were addressed. But central banks don’t want deflation, so they increase money supply in some form to prevent it.