Alarm bells are ringing among top Democrats over the 2024 presidential race and President Joe Bidenās political future, with the presidentās debate performance leaving some to openly question whether Biden can stay atop of the Democratic ticket.
Finally the dense mother fuckers who have been denying Bidenās inadequacy have been dragged, kicking and screaming, into reality.
Weāll have a brokered convention (like all conventions before 1970ās), weāll get āgeneric corporate democratā, and theyāll be instantly polling in the low to mid 50ās and weāll actually have a fucking chance.
Biden has had no chance at winning this election at any point in his candidacy. Ever. Look at the polling. Look at the data. Heās never stood a chance and plenty of people here and elsewhere have been trying to get this through some extremely thick skulls that have basically been insisting that we need to run an un-electable candidate.
Well the goose is cooked. The rat is out of the bag. Here comes the moose or whatever. Heās done. Adios Biden, donāt let the door hit you on the way out. You did fine on some stuff but wow you fucked up on Gaza/Israel.
Minutes after that debate Newsom was on MSNBC. Weāre gonna get Newsom, or maybe Inslee; a way smarter choice would be Witmer or Andy Beshear.
And guess what? Litterally ANY GENERIC CANDIDATE PUTS 10 POINTS BACK ON THE BOARD.
Bam. Switch candidates and Democrats are instantaneously back in this race.
Biden is the Democratic nominee. Sure itās not official until August 19-22 but unless he resigns, dies, or is otherwise fully incapacitated before then, he is the candidate who will be on the ballots in November. None of those possibilities seem likely.
Are you? Because people are still thinking about voting third party. Despite the fact that the system in place will not allow a third party candidate to prevail. And voting third party takes away from the Democratic party vote every time.
This probably doesnāt work, and itās probably not as good idea as anyone hopes (genuinely or not). It might happen anyway, but no matter what, weāre coasting toward a second Trump presidency, just like all the Russian agitprops here wanted all along.
If Biden is polling down 10 points or worse at the convention, they could drag someone else onto the stage, but my suspicion is that no one else outperforms him on short notice, even after his abysmal performance in the debate.
A few reasons:
Newsom probably doesnāt want it. If he calculates Trump wins either way (not unreasonable), heās not going to want that loss on his record since heās already gunning for 28. He would be the best chance at getting an up-and-comer who already has good name recognition and looks and sounds good.
Harris. If Harris wants it, she has a lot of leverage to make it hard or outright impossible for the party to push anyone else out in front of her. Sheās a poor candidate for a lot of reasons, but sheās also the most attached to Biden. Thatās both good and bad for her. If they want to run anyone else, they have to have her playing ball too. Ask yourself, if you were Kamala Harris, would you give up your only conceivable chance at the Oval in favor of another non-Biden candidate? Remember, in any scenario the odds are good Trump wins anyway.
The truth may be that the party would rather just let Trump win. That sounds unthinkable, but this isnāt a secret cabal of idealists weāre talking about: itās a bunch of self-interested rich people who want to put themselves in power. Getting them to do anything for the public good is difficult under the best circumstances. They could easily decideārightlyāthat Biden is still their best shot at beating Trump. That was the call in 2020, and it paid off. Donāt forget that many of these same names being batted around now were active in the party four years ago. Newsom loses to Trump, and heās largely seen as the best alternative. If youāre running the party and looking at those odds, you should run Biden if you actually want the best chance at winning. You might decide itās just a lost cause and start planning for a four year long nightmare.
LOL. A lot of flowery language there but not much substance. The Dems canāt switch now. Trump can instantly snatch on to that and attack whoever replaces Biden as an inferior desperate backup. Trump will say you Democrats have no idea what theyāre doing and they canāt even stand behind their incumbent. This isnāt only about 2024 but also about the midterms. Who would vote for a party that backstabs their incumbent?
You obviously donāt know the rules for the DNC or how primaryās work, or have any kind of meaningful political acumen. You are your archetypes have been spouting this plainly wrong āpolitical wisdomā both here and across cable news for months, years even. And reality has now bucked your claims.
Bidens not the nominee. He lost that last night. And itās a good thing. Heās losing dramatically to Trump right now.
Thatās just the odds of Biden (or Trump for that matter) keeling over for literally any reason whatsoever based on the social security actuarial table. So if I can get 20:1, I should be break even betting against any octogenarian.
There is a little bit better than a 1 in 15 chance, that for any 81 year old, theyāll die that year. So I hedged it to 1:20 as insurance, because I figured Iām really only betting on the first 9 months of the year. If I can get 1:20, thatās break even odds (actually slightly in my favor). Also, figure the presidency, campaigning; that shit aint a walk in the park. Probably more likely still to die in office than a standard octogenarian.
Iāll give you 10:1 if you bet at least 50 bucks. I lose, you make $50; I win, I make $500. Hows that sound?
Edit: As to how to enforce it, we can make a community and pin it there. ITs similar to what we used to do in a bar I frequented where we would bet pints (very similarly) on whatever was happening. There was a cork-board and bets would get pinned to it. And I trust you.
Iāll eat my hat and comment here if Biden doesnāt gets his nomination. I didnāt say Biden is the nominee. I didnāt even use the word ānomineeā. Its you who keeps attacking the straw man. But you know what? Iām 100% sure the DNC will nominate Biden. That debate performance was bad but he aināt losing his presumptive nomination. Donāt confuse reality with what you want to happen.
Welp, weāre fucked.
No. Weāre āun-fuckedā.
We cant win with Biden.
We CAN win without him.
Finally the dense mother fuckers who have been denying Bidenās inadequacy have been dragged, kicking and screaming, into reality.
Weāll have a brokered convention (like all conventions before 1970ās), weāll get āgeneric corporate democratā, and theyāll be instantly polling in the low to mid 50ās and weāll actually have a fucking chance.
Biden has had no chance at winning this election at any point in his candidacy. Ever. Look at the polling. Look at the data. Heās never stood a chance and plenty of people here and elsewhere have been trying to get this through some extremely thick skulls that have basically been insisting that we need to run an un-electable candidate.
Well the goose is cooked. The rat is out of the bag. Here comes the moose or whatever. Heās done. Adios Biden, donāt let the door hit you on the way out. You did fine on some stuff but wow you fucked up on Gaza/Israel.
Minutes after that debate Newsom was on MSNBC. Weāre gonna get Newsom, or maybe Inslee; a way smarter choice would be Witmer or Andy Beshear.
And guess what? Litterally ANY GENERIC CANDIDATE PUTS 10 POINTS BACK ON THE BOARD.
Bam. Switch candidates and Democrats are instantaneously back in this race.
Biden had beaten him before. And many people will vote for a shit stain against trump.
Heās not winning. Pull your head out of your ass. Heās losing by every metric.
Did I say he was winning? Where? Show me!
Good luck with Project 2025, because thatās what third party voters are voting for.
We need to get rid of FPTP voting before a 2 party system can be derailed.
Without ranked choice voting a third party vote is throwing away a vote.
Correct. And almost always a vote that would go to a Democrat candidate.
Are you like, actually touched?
Weāre talking about the Democratic nominee right now. Not any third party candidate.
Biden is the Democratic nominee. Sure itās not official until August 19-22 but unless he resigns, dies, or is otherwise fully incapacitated before then, he is the candidate who will be on the ballots in November. None of those possibilities seem likely.
We havenāt had a convention. We donāt until August.
Biden is not the nominee. You should try and learn how things actually work.
Maybe look at history from time immemorial. Biden is the nominee. As unfortunate as that may be, thatās our reality.
Whats your bet? Lay down some money.
Iām poor and homeless. So come get my ass if you really want a bet. Bring a cleaver and chop me to pieces. You think I fucking care?
You want stakes? How about IRL steaks?
Are you? Because people are still thinking about voting third party. Despite the fact that the system in place will not allow a third party candidate to prevail. And voting third party takes away from the Democratic party vote every time.
You are just clueless.
Sure thing, Bud.
š«µ š¤”
š
This probably doesnāt work, and itās probably not as good idea as anyone hopes (genuinely or not). It might happen anyway, but no matter what, weāre coasting toward a second Trump presidency, just like all the Russian agitprops here wanted all along.
If Biden is polling down 10 points or worse at the convention, they could drag someone else onto the stage, but my suspicion is that no one else outperforms him on short notice, even after his abysmal performance in the debate.
A few reasons:
Just bumping this to remind you how entirely and completely wrong you were.
LOL. A lot of flowery language there but not much substance. The Dems canāt switch now. Trump can instantly snatch on to that and attack whoever replaces Biden as an inferior desperate backup. Trump will say you Democrats have no idea what theyāre doing and they canāt even stand behind their incumbent. This isnāt only about 2024 but also about the midterms. Who would vote for a party that backstabs their incumbent?
Yeah your just wrong.
You obviously donāt know the rules for the DNC or how primaryās work, or have any kind of meaningful political acumen. You are your archetypes have been spouting this plainly wrong āpolitical wisdomā both here and across cable news for months, years even. And reality has now bucked your claims.
Bidens not the nominee. He lost that last night. And itās a good thing. Heās losing dramatically to Trump right now.
Such confidence in statements that will be proven wrong in a matter of days. LOL. Youāll forget these comments by then though.
I mean Iām taking bets.
Iāll take 20:1 if you feel so generous as to give me those odds.
Iāll lay down $20: Biden isnāt the nominee; and a second $20: Biden is does not win the Presidential election.
If Iām wrong on the nominee, you get $20. If Iām wrong on them winning the presidency, another $20.
If Iām right on the nominee, you pay me $400. If Iām right on them not winning the Presidency (for any reason), thatās another $400 you owe me.
Bet? Or coward that doesnāt really believe what they believe when they are held accountable?
If you donāt like those odds, feel free to offer odds you prefer and Iāll consider them.
How would we enforce the bet?
Why 20:1 and not 1:1?
Or even 1:20 if youāre so confident?
Believe in yourself. Take the 1:20 bet.
Thatāll show me.
20:1 specifically?
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
Thatās just the odds of Biden (or Trump for that matter) keeling over for literally any reason whatsoever based on the social security actuarial table. So if I can get 20:1, I should be break even betting against any octogenarian.
There is a little bit better than a 1 in 15 chance, that for any 81 year old, theyāll die that year. So I hedged it to 1:20 as insurance, because I figured Iām really only betting on the first 9 months of the year. If I can get 1:20, thatās break even odds (actually slightly in my favor). Also, figure the presidency, campaigning; that shit aint a walk in the park. Probably more likely still to die in office than a standard octogenarian.
Iāll give you 10:1 if you bet at least 50 bucks. I lose, you make $50; I win, I make $500. Hows that sound?
Edit: As to how to enforce it, we can make a community and pin it there. ITs similar to what we used to do in a bar I frequented where we would bet pints (very similarly) on whatever was happening. There was a cork-board and bets would get pinned to it. And I trust you.
Iāll eat my hat and comment here if Biden doesnāt gets his nomination. I didnāt say Biden is the nominee. I didnāt even use the word ānomineeā. Its you who keeps attacking the straw man. But you know what? Iām 100% sure the DNC will nominate Biden. That debate performance was bad but he aināt losing his presumptive nomination. Donāt confuse reality with what you want to happen.
Show me a picture of the hat.
@remindme@mstdn.social 55 days
Show me what hat you will eat.